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Gast
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 Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 20:32 Titel: |
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| Bulawula hat folgendes geschrieben: |
It's Tuesday, Paul was on a British Pub Tour yesterday.
He just can't distinguish between the spanish and german flagg, thus he chosed Germany in 2008 and this time Spain.
He has only a correctness probability of p = 0,8.
This is our 6th match, the probability to be right 6 times in a row would be:
0,8^6 = 0,26.
That means Spain wins with a probability of 26 % and Germany with a probability of 74 % and Paul is wrong!
I can live with that  |
you´re not right!! that´s the probability of being right 6 NEXT TIMES.
the probability of being right just the next time is as u say... 0,8
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 20:37 Titel: |
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No, Paul has proven a p=0,8 probability during the EC 08.
That's his parameter.
With this attitude, the probability to be right the sixth time during the WC is only 26%.
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:02 Titel: |
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| Bulawula hat folgendes geschrieben: |
No, Paul has proven a p=0,8 probability during the EC 08.
That's his parameter.
With this attitude, the probability to be right the sixth time during the WC is only 26%. |
if u have a coin u have 2 options, with 50% each one.
the probability of getting 4 times the same is 0,5^4
the probability of getting your choose is EVERY TIME 50%
if the probability of being right of paul is 0,8 is 0,8 every time. it doesn´t matter what have happened before because every match is an independent experiment 
so... the probability is 0,8 
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:05 Titel: |
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omg...
I talk about the probability how many times IN A ROW Paul is right.
If you have a coin with A und B (50:50).
What is the probability to get 6 times A in a row??
What is the probability of [Paul is right] 6 times in a row??
...
World Champion must be Germany or Spain!!! The teams of the other side of the playoff chart suck -.-
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:17 Titel: |
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Dudes, let´s face it.... the probability that Pauls right is exactly 50%  nothing else.
Calculation coming up, if requested....
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Gast
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:32 Titel: |
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Unfortunately true, I would prefer 26% this time!
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:32 Titel: |
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I'm sticking with the 50%
Unless one box is more tasty. 
Just let's not debate how accurate this stupid psychic octopus is.
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 21:34 Titel: |
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| Nupako hat folgendes geschrieben: |
Paul is god, the probability that Pauls right is exactly 100%  |
Paul errs 2008 only with Spain vs Germany ... he predict that Germany will win ...
Paul errs 2010 only with Spain vs Germany ...  !
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 22:06 Titel: |
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i think tomorrow is the final!!!
after watching todays´s match... i think germany or spain shouldn´t have many problems in the final!!!
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 6 Jul 2010 22:13 Titel: |
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| spainrules hat folgendes geschrieben: |
i think tomorrow is the final!!!
after watching todays´s match... i think germany or spain shouldn´t have many problems in the final!!! |
Things never turn out the way you expect.
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 07:34 Titel: |
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| spainrules hat folgendes geschrieben: |
i think tomorrow is the final!!!
after watching todays´s match... i think germany or spain shouldn´t have many problems in the final!!! |
That have been exact the same thoughts I had after the game.
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 07:45 Titel: |
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| cybergnom hat folgendes geschrieben: |
| spainrules hat folgendes geschrieben: |
i think tomorrow is the final!!!
after watching todays´s match... i think germany or spain shouldn´t have many problems in the final!!! |
That have been exact the same thoughts I had after the game. |
And every football fan around the world (outside Netherlands and Uruguay), too!
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 08:14 Titel: |
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| Bulawula hat folgendes geschrieben: |
| World Champion must be Germany or Spain!!! The teams of the other side of the playoff chart suck -.- |
you are slow
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 08:30 Titel: |
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Guys, today's a good day to write history (again)!
My prognose:
1:0 Germany, goal from Miro Fantastico in the second Halftime
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Gast
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 13:46 Titel: |
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 by bild.de
Let´s have
some juice
tonight !!!
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 14:45 Titel: |
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GERMANY? 4
SPAIN? 0
I think, if Germany will be playing like against Argentina or England, Spain get no Chance.
I hope, Llorente will be playing for Fernando (the God, El Nino) Torres.
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 15:13 Titel: |
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| -zara hat folgendes geschrieben: |
GERMANY? 4
SPAIN? 0
I think, if Germany will be playing like against Argentina or England, Spain get no Chance.
I hope, Llorente will be playing for Fernando (the God, El Nino) Torres. |
Silva or Cesc for Fernando
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Gast
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 15:17 Titel: |
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This night
we will cut
the sausages
  
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sanipine
Nationalspieler
 
Anmeldungsdatum: 21.07.2003
Beiträge: 2765
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| Verfasst am: 7 Jul 2010 16:15 Titel: |
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Our sausages don't look like that - those look somewhat disgusting (grose)... _________________ Aus Protest AfD zu wählen ist das gleiche wie in der Kneipe an einer Klobürste zu lutschen, weil man sich über das Bier ärgert.
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Gast
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Gast
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Gast
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